Let’s not pretend this is your standard driver market flirtation. When Toto Wolff publicly declares he’s in “conversations” with Max Verstappen’s camp, it’s not just about filling Lewis Hamilton’s old seat—it’s an attempt to throw Red Bull off balance. And it’s working. George Russell’s renewal is on pause. Horner’s press briefings are getting spicier. And every other team principal is watching with popcorn in hand.

But beyond the smoke signals and sly paddock quotes, what would it actually take to pull Verstappen out of Milton Keynes and into the Silver Arrows garage?

A GDP-Sized Contract

Verstappen’s current deal, signed in early 2022, runs until the end of the 2028 season. It’s reportedly worth around $75 million a year (roughly ₹625 crore), which makes him not just the highest-paid driver on the grid, but also one of the most contractually secure.

And yet—there’s always an and yet—fresh reporting suggests a “performance element” baked into the deal could offer a back door. Multiple sources (notably Sky Sports reporter Craig Slater) report that Verstappen can activate an exit clause if he is lower than fourth in the Drivers’ Championship after next month’s Hungarian Grand Prix—the final race before the summer break. As of now, he’s hanging on to third. But the margins are slim. Oscar Piastri leads the standings, George Russell is breathing down his neck, and Charles Leclerc isn’t far off either.

F1 has seen high-profile transfers before—but nothing in this financial stratosphere. Lewis Hamilton’s move from McLaren to Mercedes in 2013 was rumoured to involve a £60 million deal over three years. Fernando Alonso’s 2007 McLaren contract was reportedly worth around £20 million annually, while Sebastian Vettel’s switch to Aston Martin in 2021 cost the team upwards of £30 million per season.

But those were new contracts. What Mercedes would be attempting here is different: paying nine figures just to unlock the door, before even negotiating terms. It’s not a signing—it’s a siege. And if it happens, it’ll be the most expensive driver move in the history of the sport.

Wolff’s Real Play: Shake the Tree

Toto Wolff knows exactly what he’s doing; this isn’t just about making a deal, it’s about making noise. Beloved F1 broadcaster Martin Brundle hit the nail on the head when he said a Verstappen signing would deal a “body blow” to Red Bull. And the longer Russell’s future hangs in limbo, the more effective that pressure becomes.

The timing isn’t incidental either. 2026 is looming, and with it, a massive reset in F1’s power unit regulations. Some on the Mercedes board believe their next-gen engine could be a title contender from day one—and if the memory of 2014 is anything to go by, they have every reason to be confident. Back then, when the sport shifted to V6 turbo-hybrids, Mercedes turned up with a power unit that made the rest of the grid look prehistoric. They didn’t just win—they decimated. Six straight constructors’ titles followed, and for several years, the only real question on Sundays was which Merc would win. If they’ve timed another leap forward in 2026, Verstappen may not need to chase the fastest car. It could be waiting for him.

Why shell out a fortune for Verstappen now when a top car might make the current driver lineup look golden? It’s a valid question—and one that’s reportedly made Wolff’s campaign for Max a little less unanimous behind closed doors. Still, destabilising Red Bull has its own value. And Wolff’s very public courtship has already nudged the narrative in Mercedes’ favour.

What About Max’s 2025 Form?

On paper, this is Verstappen’s weakest season since his dominant run began. He hasn’t topped a qualifying session in weeks. He’s 61 points behind Piastri. Red Bull haven’t looked the fastest car since Miami. And yet…no one’s doubting him. He’s still leading the lap count this season. He’s still finished nearly every race in the points. And while the RB21 isn’t a dog, it’s clearly lost its 2023 edge. Max, however, hasn’t. His reputation now rests not just on his speed but on how ruthlessly consistent he remains even when things go sideways; something that few drivers other than the likes of Alonso can claim. That’s why Mercedes are interested. That’s why the F1 world is watching. And that’s why Red Bull can’t afford to get this wrong.

What Do the Drivers Think?

Publicly, Verstappen has played it cool—repeating that he has “nothing to add” when grilled about the Mercedes rumours at Silverstone. He was visibly unmoved, reminding journalists that “the grass is always greener” cliché doesn’t apply when you’re already a four-time world champion. Still, he conceded that 2025 “is not what we wanted as a team,” and while he’s focused on improving Red Bull’s form, his comments on chasing the “fastest car” felt deliberately non-committal. The message? He’s not ruling anything out—even if he won’t say that aloud.

George Russell, meanwhile, sounds a touch more rattled than his calm phrasing suggests. While denying that he’s spoken to any other teams, he admitted that Mercedes is “having conversations” with Verstappen. It’s a revealing admission that leaves little room for ambiguity—especially since his own contract runs out this year. If a blockbuster signing is on the cards, it’s Russell who has the most to lose.

Then there’s Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes’ teenage rookie and the man many thought would be groomed into a long-term seat. He’s adopted a refreshingly mature stance, brushing aside the speculation and focusing on his development. “The team is giving me time to grow,” he said, despite having knocked Verstappen out of the last race in Austria. The Italian even went over to apologise—clearly aware that, PR-wise, it wouldn’t hurt to stay on Max’s good side.

So, Could He Actually Leave?

Possibly. But the scenario is razor-thin. If Max drops out of the top four by the Hungarian Grand Prix—which kicks off in early August—the clause might trigger. If that doesn’t happen, Red Bull would need to either offer major reassurances, or prepare for the kind of nine-figure conversation that usually only happens in football.

There’s also the elephant in the garage: Helmut Marko. It’s been rumoured that Max’s long-term loyalty is tied, in part, to Marko’s presence at the team. If internal politics were to push Marko out, as they possibly did with Adrian Newey, that could change everything. For now, Verstappen’s public tone remains calm. “It would be amazing to finish my career with one team,” he said at Silverstone. But in the same breath, he admitted that 2025 hasn’t gone the way they’d hoped. “You can always see the grass is greener on the other side… but I know what I have. That’s enough.” Translation: He’s open—but on his terms.

So, what will it take for Mercedes to land Max Verstappen? At least £100 million. A drop in championship standings. A shift in Red Bull’s internal leadership. Or all three. Short of that, this saga might just end where it started: with a lot of noise, a lot of leverage, and Max Verstappen still wearing blue come 2026. But in Formula 1, smoke doesn’t rise without fire. And Toto Wolff looks like he’s brought a blowtorch.